A novel prognostic prediction model for recurrence in patients with stage II colon cancer after curative resection

Kazuhiro Saso, Norikatsu Myoshi, Shiki Fujino, Yuya Takenaka, Yusuke Takahashi, Junichi Nishimura, Masayoshi Yasui, Masayuki Ohue, Masayoshi Tokuoka, Yoshito Ide, Hidekazu Takahashi, Naotsugu Haraguchi, Taishi Hata, Chu Matsuda, Tsunekazu Mizushima, Yuichiro Doki, Masaki Mori

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The present study aimed to clarify the risk factors for recurrence of stage II colon cancer in patients and to determine possible treatment options for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. A prediction model for recurrence in patients with stage II colon cancer after curative surgical resection was developed. The present study retrospectively investigated 436 patients who underwent curative resection for stage II colon cancer at Osaka International Cancer Institute and Yao Municipal Hospital between 2004 and 2012. Several clinicopathological factors were examined and the Cox regression model was used to develop a prediction model for recurrence. The prediction model was validated in an independent group of 213 patients who underwent surgery at Osaka University Hospital between 2001 and 2012. Univariate analysis revealed that preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, preoperative obstruction, tumor invasion, lymphatic invasion and venous invasion were significantly correlated with disease-free survival. Using these variables, a classification and regression tree was constructed as a prediction model. The prediction models were validated by external datasets in an independent patient group. The concordance indices for DFS after current surgical resection were 0.675 in the learning set and 0.552 in the validation set. To conclude, a novel, reliable and personalized prognostic model was developed to predict recurrence in patients with stage II colon cancer, which may help clinicians to determine and perform adjuvant chemotherapy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)697-701
Number of pages5
JournalMolecular and Clinical Oncology
Volume9
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2018
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

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