A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico

Sediment-related disasters may cause high casualties and economic losses in mountainous zones. The occurrence of these natural hazards in developing countries, where recovery efforts usually exceed the available resources, brings to the fore the urgent need to develop rainfall criteria, in order to understand, mitigate and reduce to the barest minimum the adversities with the available data resources. Unfortunately, many restrictions are encountered in developing countries, for example in Mexico: historical rainfall information is difficult to access and if available, it is only on a daily basis, thereby, making rainfall criteria development almost impossible. Therefore, this research provides a disaster probability approach named interim zone using the relationship between the disaster occurrence and rainfall episodes, in order to be used as a rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. From the total rainfall data by rainfall episodes, we could establish an interim zone where 71.9 mm is the minimum amount of rainfall needed to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 112.6 mm is the amount of rainfall if exceeded makes the probability of disaster occurrence high. Using maximum intensity, the interim zone is within 57.7 mm/day as minimum value to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 83.6 mm/day as the amount high likely to cause a sediment-related disaster.