A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast

Fumitoshi Nomiyama, Joji Asai, Takuma Murakami, Hirotaka Takano, Junichi Murata

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Two models are proposed for forecasting global solar radiation. The forecasted values are used to predict the output power of photovoltaic systems installed in power systems and control the output of other generators to meet the electricity demand. One of the models is used for at least one-day-ahead demand and supply planning. The other model is used for three-hour-ahead demand and supply operation. The models are based on weather information and use descriptive statistics and binary trees respectively. The focus is on estimation of the anticipated variations in the forecasts and dealing with the nonlinearity of the relationship between the global solar radiation and the input variables. In addition, the smoothing effect of the errors is investigated and utilized when they are applied to wide area forecasting. The results show that they are promising in keeping the balance between demand and supply in power systems with photovoltaic systems installed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2012
Event2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012 - Auckland, New Zealand
Duration: Oct 30 2012Nov 2 2012

Publication series

Name2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012

Other

Other2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
CountryNew Zealand
CityAuckland
Period10/30/1211/2/12

Fingerprint

Solar radiation
Binary trees
Electricity
Statistics
Planning

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Fuel Technology

Cite this

Nomiyama, F., Asai, J., Murakami, T., Takano, H., & Murata, J. (2012). A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast. In 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012 [6401336] (2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012). https://doi.org/10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336

A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast. / Nomiyama, Fumitoshi; Asai, Joji; Murakami, Takuma; Takano, Hirotaka; Murata, Junichi.

2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012. 2012. 6401336 (2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Nomiyama, F, Asai, J, Murakami, T, Takano, H & Murata, J 2012, A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast. in 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012., 6401336, 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012, 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012, Auckland, New Zealand, 10/30/12. https://doi.org/10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336
Nomiyama F, Asai J, Murakami T, Takano H, Murata J. A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast. In 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012. 2012. 6401336. (2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012). https://doi.org/10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336
Nomiyama, Fumitoshi ; Asai, Joji ; Murakami, Takuma ; Takano, Hirotaka ; Murata, Junichi. / A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast. 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012. 2012. (2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012).
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