An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model

Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

45 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We produced 100-member event attribution ensembles during 2009-2012 under all forcing conditions and in two different counterfactual worlds without anthropogenic forcing (mainly greenhouse gases and aerosols) and without aerosol emission changes using the MIROC5 atmospheric general circulation model. It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region, and that changes in aerosols emissions had little effect on the drought. It should be noted that our assessments were sensitive to bias corrections according to the relationships between the SST natural variability and precipitation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)170-175
Number of pages6
JournalAtmospheric Science Letters
Volume14
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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