Abstract
The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 3131-3153 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
| Volume | 123 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Apr 1 2018 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geophysics
- Forestry
- Oceanography
- Aquatic Science
- Ecology
- Water Science and Technology
- Soil Science
- Geochemistry and Petrology
- Earth-Surface Processes
- Atmospheric Science
- Space and Planetary Science
- Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Palaeontology
Cite this
Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART. / Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H. L.; Marsh, D. R.; Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, Larisa Petrovna; Siddiqui, T. A.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 123, No. 4, 01.04.2018, p. 3131-3153.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART
AU - Pedatella, N. M.
AU - Liu, H. L.
AU - Marsh, D. R.
AU - Raeder, K.
AU - Anderson, J. L.
AU - Chau, J. L.
AU - Goncharenko, Larisa Petrovna
AU - Siddiqui, T. A.
PY - 2018/4/1
Y1 - 2018/4/1
N2 - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
AB - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
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U2 - 10.1002/2017JA025107
DO - 10.1002/2017JA025107
M3 - Article
VL - 123
SP - 3131
EP - 3153
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research
SN - 0148-0227
IS - 4
ER -