TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART
AU - Pedatella, N. M.
AU - Liu, H. L.
AU - Marsh, D. R.
AU - Raeder, K.
AU - Anderson, J. L.
AU - Chau, J. L.
AU - Goncharenko, L. P.
AU - Siddiqui, T. A.
N1 - Funding Information:
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Cheyenne (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX) provided by NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. N. P. acknowledges support from National Science Foundation grants AGS-1033112 and AGS-1552153, as the International Space Science Institute for supporting the international team “Ionospheric Space Weather Studied by RO and Ground-based GPS TEC Observations”. H. L. was supported in part by NASA grant NNX14AH54G and AFOSR grant FA9550-16-1-0050. The participation of J.C . in this work is part of the project supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under SPP 1788 (DynamicEarth)-CH 1482/1-1 (DYNAMITE). L. P. G. is supported by NASA through LWS grant NNX13AI62G and by U.S. NSF grant AGS-1343056. The Jicamarca ISR and ground-based GPS TEC data are available through the MIT Haystack Observatory Madrigal database (http://madrigal.haystack.mit.edu/ madrigal/). The magnetometer data are provided by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism (http://www.wdc.bgs.ac.uk/catalog/ master.html). Model outputs used in this paper are archived on the NCAR High Performance Storage System. WACCMX and DART are open-source software with source code publicly available at the NCAR website.
Publisher Copyright:
©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2018/4
Y1 - 2018/4
N2 - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
AB - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047542709&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85047542709&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2017JA025107
DO - 10.1002/2017JA025107
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85047542709
VL - 123
SP - 3131
EP - 3153
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
SN - 2169-9380
IS - 4
ER -