TY - JOUR
T1 - Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers
AU - Stjern, Camilla Weum
AU - Lund, Marianne Tronstad
AU - Samset, Bjørn Hallvard
AU - Myhre, Gunnar
AU - Forster, Piers M.
AU - Andrews, Timothy
AU - Boucher, Olivier
AU - Faluvegi, Gregory
AU - Fläschner, Dagmar
AU - Iversen, Trond
AU - Kasoar, Matthew
AU - Kharin, Viatcheslav
AU - Kirkevåg, Alf
AU - Lamarque, Jean François
AU - Olivié, Dirk
AU - Richardson, Thomas
AU - Sand, Maria
AU - Shawki, Dilshad
AU - Shindell, Drew
AU - Smith, Christopher J.
AU - Takemura, Toshihiko
AU - Voulgarakis, Apostolos
N1 - Funding Information:
The PDRMIP model output is publicly available; for data access, visit http:// www.cicero.uio.no/en/PDRMIP/ PDRMIP‐data‐access. PDRMIP is partly funded through the Norwegian Research Council project NAPEX (project number 229778). O. B. acknowledges HPC resources from TGCC under the gencmip6 allocation provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif). Climate modeling at GISS is supported by the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program, and GISS simulations used resources provided by the NASA High‐End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. T. T. was supported by the supercomputer system of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S‐12‐3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and JSPS KAKENHI grants 15H01728 and 15K12190. D. O., A. K., and T. I. were supported by the Norwegian Research Council through the projects EVA (grant 229771), EarthClim (207711/ E10), NOTUR (nn2345k), and NorStore (ns2345k). T. A. was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). M. K. and A. V. are supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/K500872/1. Simulations with HadGEM3‐GA4 were performed using the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a stra tegic partnership between the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council. T. R. and P. F. were supported by NERC grants NE/K007483/1 and NE/N006038/1.
Funding Information:
The PDRMIP model output is publicly available; for data access, visit http://www.cicero.uio.no/en/PDRMIP/PDRMIP-data-access. PDRMIP is partly funded through the Norwegian Research Council project NAPEX (project number 229778). O. B. acknowledges HPC resources from TGCC under the gencmip6 allocation provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif). Climate modeling at GISS is supported by the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program, and GISS simulations used resources provided by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. T. T. was supported by the supercomputer system of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and JSPS KAKENHI grants 15H01728 and 15K12190. D. O., A. K., and T. I. were supported by the Norwegian Research Council through the projects EVA (grant 229771), EarthClim (207711/E10), NOTUR (nn2345k), and NorStore (ns2345k). T. A. was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). M. K. and A. V. are supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/K500872/1. Simulations with HadGEM3-GA4 were performed using the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council. T. R. and P. F. were supported by NERC grants NE/K007483/1 and NE/N006038/1.
Publisher Copyright:
©2019. The Authors.
PY - 2019/1/1
Y1 - 2019/1/1
N2 - The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short-lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.
AB - The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short-lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.
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U2 - 10.1029/2018JD029726
DO - 10.1029/2018JD029726
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85068532522
SN - 0148-0227
VL - 124
SP - 6698
EP - 6717
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research
IS - 13
ER -
