TY - JOUR
T1 - Are carbon dioxide emission reductions compatible with sustainable well-being?
AU - Sugiawan, Yogi
AU - Kurniawan, Robi
AU - Managi, Shunsuke
N1 - Funding Information:
Shunsuke Managi was supported by the following Grant in Aid from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan (MEXT): Grant in Aid for Specially Promoted Research [grant number 26000001 ]. Yogi Sugiawan was supported by the Research and Innovation in Science and Technology Project (RISET-PRO), Ministry of Research, Technology, and Higher Education of Indonesia [loan number 8245-ID]. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2019/5/15
Y1 - 2019/5/15
N2 - Efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remain elusive due to the strong correlation with economic development. The progress of economic development therefore needs to be assessed by considering the harmful effects of CO2 emissions as a loss of intergenerational well-being. This has been the motivation behind the development of the inclusive wealth (IW) index, which is proposed as a viable alternative to the conventional gross domestic product for tracking the progress towards the well-being of a nation. By using nonparametric machine learning methods, this study aims to explore the impact of CO2 emission reduction on well-being under the IW framework via three different energy pathways, namely, the supply, mix and efficiency pathways, involving 105 countries from 1992 to 2014. Results showed that the lowest growth in global CO2 emissions was projected by the efficiency scenario, which forecasted an increase by 2040 of 15.12% relative to the 2014 level. However, this scenario might lead to a potential loss in future well-being by up to 0.3%, compared to the two other scenarios. These findings suggest that the commitment to CO2 emission reduction needs to be evaluated cautiously by considering its impact on intergenerational well-being, particularly for developing economies. In contrast, high-income economies were encouraged to set up a more ambitious target of CO2 emission reduction since doing so would also lead to a potential increase of their intergenerational well-being. This study verifies a robust link between sustainable development and CO2 emission mitigation scenarios, which is essential for promoting future climate actions.
AB - Efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remain elusive due to the strong correlation with economic development. The progress of economic development therefore needs to be assessed by considering the harmful effects of CO2 emissions as a loss of intergenerational well-being. This has been the motivation behind the development of the inclusive wealth (IW) index, which is proposed as a viable alternative to the conventional gross domestic product for tracking the progress towards the well-being of a nation. By using nonparametric machine learning methods, this study aims to explore the impact of CO2 emission reduction on well-being under the IW framework via three different energy pathways, namely, the supply, mix and efficiency pathways, involving 105 countries from 1992 to 2014. Results showed that the lowest growth in global CO2 emissions was projected by the efficiency scenario, which forecasted an increase by 2040 of 15.12% relative to the 2014 level. However, this scenario might lead to a potential loss in future well-being by up to 0.3%, compared to the two other scenarios. These findings suggest that the commitment to CO2 emission reduction needs to be evaluated cautiously by considering its impact on intergenerational well-being, particularly for developing economies. In contrast, high-income economies were encouraged to set up a more ambitious target of CO2 emission reduction since doing so would also lead to a potential increase of their intergenerational well-being. This study verifies a robust link between sustainable development and CO2 emission mitigation scenarios, which is essential for promoting future climate actions.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.113
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.113
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85062863719
VL - 242
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
SN - 0306-2619
ER -