Abstract
Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2815-2825 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Accepted/In press - Jan 1 2018 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Geophysics
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Cite this
Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying. / Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J. F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, No. 6, 01.01.2018, p. 2815-2825.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying
AU - Richardson, T. B.
AU - Forster, P. M.
AU - Andrews, T.
AU - Boucher, O.
AU - Faluvegi, G.
AU - Fläschner, D.
AU - Kasoar, M.
AU - Kirkevåg, A.
AU - Lamarque, J. F.
AU - Myhre, G.
AU - Olivié, D.
AU - Samset, B. H.
AU - Shawki, D.
AU - Shindell, D.
AU - Takemura, T.
AU - Voulgarakis, A.
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.
AB - Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85044418652&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85044418652&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2017GL076520
DO - 10.1002/2017GL076520
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85044418652
VL - 45
SP - 2815
EP - 2825
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 6
ER -