Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying

T. B. Richardson, P. M. Forster, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, M. Kasoar, A. Kirkevåg, J. F. Lamarque, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, B. H. Samset, D. Shawki, D. Shindell, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2815-2825
Number of pages11
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume45
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - Jan 1 2018

Fingerprint

drying
carbon dioxide
physiological effects
projection
atmospheric forcing
stomata
black carbon
climate models
global climate
climate modeling
temperature
heating
carbon
effect

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., ... Voulgarakis, A. (Accepted/In press). Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(6), 2815-2825. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076520

Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying. / Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J. F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, No. 6, 01.01.2018, p. 2815-2825.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Richardson, TB, Forster, PM, Andrews, T, Boucher, O, Faluvegi, G, Fläschner, D, Kasoar, M, Kirkevåg, A, Lamarque, JF, Myhre, G, Olivié, D, Samset, BH, Shawki, D, Shindell, D, Takemura, T & Voulgarakis, A 2018, 'Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 45, no. 6, pp. 2815-2825. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076520
Richardson TB, Forster PM, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D et al. Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018 Jan 1;45(6):2815-2825. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076520
Richardson, T. B. ; Forster, P. M. ; Andrews, T. ; Boucher, O. ; Faluvegi, G. ; Fläschner, D. ; Kasoar, M. ; Kirkevåg, A. ; Lamarque, J. F. ; Myhre, G. ; Olivié, D. ; Samset, B. H. ; Shawki, D. ; Shindell, D. ; Takemura, T. ; Voulgarakis, A. / Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2018 ; Vol. 45, No. 6. pp. 2815-2825.
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