Crop area yield risk evaluation and premium rates calculation - Based on nonparametric kernel density estimation

Feng Jie Xie, Erda Wang, Feng Yuan Xie

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Nonparametric method is used in this paper to evaluate the Probability density of relative meteorological yield in 19 provinces of China based on historical yields of rice, corn, wheat and bean per acre from 1985 to 2007, and yield risk also be estimated on the basis of normal density. After figuring out relative meteorological yield distribution, this paper calculates premium rates of 19 provinces for different coverage level. After comparing results of this two methods, it shows that about 56% nonparametric rates are larger than normal rates and in most cases (75%), means of nonparametric rates are significantly different from that of normal rates according to the paired t-test. The premium rates may be underestimated with the assumption of normal distribution. Implications for rating area yield crop insurance are discussed, which contains that there should be large enough percent of farmers to buy the insurance products.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering - 16th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE 2009
Pages246-252
Number of pages7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 24 2009
Event2009 16th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering, ICMSE 2009 - Moscow, Russian Federation
Duration: Sep 14 2009Sep 16 2009

Publication series

Name2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering - 16th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE 2009

Other

Other2009 16th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering, ICMSE 2009
CountryRussian Federation
CityMoscow
Period9/14/099/16/09

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Xie, F. J., Wang, E., & Xie, F. Y. (2009). Crop area yield risk evaluation and premium rates calculation - Based on nonparametric kernel density estimation. In 2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering - 16th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE 2009 (pp. 246-252). [5317437] (2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering - 16th Annual Conference Proceedings, ICMSE 2009). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMSE.2009.5317437