Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations

Nozomi Sugiura, Toshiyuki Awaji, Shuhei Masuda, Takashi Mochizuki, Takahiro Toyoda, Toru Miyama, Hiromichi Igarashi, Yoichi Ishikawa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere global model has been successfully developed with the aim of better defining the dynamical states of the global climate on seasonal to interannual scales. The application of this system to state estimations of climate processes during the 1996-1998 period shows, in particular, that the representations of structures associated with several key events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sector (such as the El Niño, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Asian summer monsoon) are significantly improved. This fact suggests that our 4D-VAR coupled data assimilation (CDA) approach has the potential to correct the initial location of the model climate attractor on the basis of observational data. In addition, the coupling parameters that control the air-sea exchange fluxes of mass, momentum, and heat become well adjusted. Such an initialization using the 4D-VAR CDA approach allows us to make a roughly 1.5-year lead time prediction of the 1997-1998 El Niño event. These results demonstrate that our 4D-VAR CDA system has the ability to enhance forecast potential for seasonal to interannual phenomena.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberC10017
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Volume113
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 8 2008
Externally publishedYes

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Climate models
climate variation
assimilation
State estimation
Indian Ocean
data assimilation
climate
Momentum
Fluxes
prediction
climate models
momentum
Air
predictions
Pacific Ocean
oceans
heat
state estimation
air
monsoons

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Forestry
  • Oceanography
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Palaeontology

Cite this

Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations. / Sugiura, Nozomi; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Masuda, Shuhei; Mochizuki, Takashi; Toyoda, Takahiro; Miyama, Toru; Igarashi, Hiromichi; Ishikawa, Yoichi.

In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 113, No. 10, C10017, 08.10.2008.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sugiura, Nozomi ; Awaji, Toshiyuki ; Masuda, Shuhei ; Mochizuki, Takashi ; Toyoda, Takahiro ; Miyama, Toru ; Igarashi, Hiromichi ; Ishikawa, Yoichi. / Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2008 ; Vol. 113, No. 10.
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