Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

Daisuke Onozuka

doi:10.1038/srep05157

Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

Daisuke Onozuka

Health Care Administration and Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

Original language	English
Article number	5157
Journal	Scientific reports
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep05157
Publication status	Published - Jun 3 2014

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title = "Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan",

abstract = "Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Ni{\~n}o 1 + 2, Ni{\~n}o 3, Ni{\~n}o 4, and Ni{\~n}o 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.",

author = "Daisuke Onozuka",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank the Fukuoka Prefectural Government, Department of Public Health and Medical Affairs, Division of Public Health for conducting infectious disease surveillance. This study was supported by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan and research budget of the Department of Public Health and Medical Affairs, Fukuoka Prefectural Government. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.",

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N2 - Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

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Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

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