TY - JOUR
T1 - Effect of weather variability on the incidence of mumps in children
T2 - A time-series analysis
AU - Onozuka, D.
AU - Hashizume, M.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2012 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2011/11
Y1 - 2011/11
N2 - The increasing international interest in the potential health effects of climate change has emphasized the importance of investigations into the relationship between weather variability and infectious diseases. However, few studies have examined the impact of weather variability on mumps in children, despite the fact that children are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. We acquired data about cases of mumps in children aged <15 years and weather variability in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2008, and then used time-series analyses to assess how weather variability affected mumps cases, adjusting for seasonal variations, inter-annual variations, and temporal variations of two large epidemics in 2001 and 2004 - 2005. The weekly number of mumps cases increased by 7·5% (95% CI 4·0 - 11·1) for every 1°C increase in average temperature and by 1·4% (95% CI 0·5 - 2·4) for every 1% increase in relative humidity. The percentage increase was greatest in the 0 - 4 years age group and tended to decrease with increasing age. The number of mumps cases in children increased significantly with increased average temperature and relative humidity.
AB - The increasing international interest in the potential health effects of climate change has emphasized the importance of investigations into the relationship between weather variability and infectious diseases. However, few studies have examined the impact of weather variability on mumps in children, despite the fact that children are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. We acquired data about cases of mumps in children aged <15 years and weather variability in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2008, and then used time-series analyses to assess how weather variability affected mumps cases, adjusting for seasonal variations, inter-annual variations, and temporal variations of two large epidemics in 2001 and 2004 - 2005. The weekly number of mumps cases increased by 7·5% (95% CI 4·0 - 11·1) for every 1°C increase in average temperature and by 1·4% (95% CI 0·5 - 2·4) for every 1% increase in relative humidity. The percentage increase was greatest in the 0 - 4 years age group and tended to decrease with increasing age. The number of mumps cases in children increased significantly with increased average temperature and relative humidity.
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U2 - 10.1017/S0950268810002967
DO - 10.1017/S0950268810002967
M3 - Article
C2 - 21211102
AN - SCOPUS:80053576304
VL - 139
SP - 1692
EP - 1700
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
JF - Epidemiology and Infection
SN - 0950-2688
IS - 11
ER -