TY - JOUR
T1 - Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols-A multi-model comparison
AU - Thornhill, Gillian D.
AU - Collins, William J.
AU - Kramer, Ryan J.
AU - Olivie, Dirk
AU - Skeie, Ragnhild B.
AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.
AU - Luke Abraham, Nathan
AU - Checa-Garcia, Ramiro
AU - Bauer, Susanne E.
AU - Deushi, Makoto
AU - Emmons, Louisa K.
AU - Forster, Piers M.
AU - Horowitz, Larry W.
AU - Johnson, Ben
AU - Keeble, James
AU - Lamarque, Jean Francois
AU - Michou, Martine
AU - Mills, Michael J.
AU - Mulcahy, Jane P.
AU - Myhre, Gunnar
AU - Nabat, Pierre
AU - Naik, Vaishali
AU - Oshima, Naga
AU - Schulz, Michael
AU - Smith, Christopher J.
AU - Takemura, Toshihiko
AU - Tilmes, Simone
AU - Wu, Tongwen
AU - Zeng, Guang
AU - Zhang, Jie
N1 - Funding Information:
Financial support. Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Mar-tine Michou, Fiona M. O’Connor, Dirk Olivié and Michael Schulz were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO).
Funding Information:
Dirk Olivié and Michael Schulz were also supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 270061) and by the Norwegian infrastructure for computational science (grant nos. NN9560K and NS9560K).
Funding Information:
Fiona M. O’Connor and Jane P. Mulcahy were funded by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101).
Funding Information:
Christopher J. Smith was supported by a NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (no. NE/T009381/1). Guang Zeng was supported by the New Zealand government’s Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF) through the NIWA pro- gramme CACV. Makoto Deushi and Naga Oshima were supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292 and JP20K04070), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JP-MEERF20172003, JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) programme grant number JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. Toshihiko Takemura was supported by the supercomputer system of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, and JSPS KAKENHI (grant no. JP19H05669.) Ragnhild B. Skeie and Gunnar Myhre were funded through the Norwegian Research Council project KEYCLIM (grant no. 295046) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 820829 (CONSTRAIN).
Funding Information:
The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation.
Funding Information:
This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under cooperative agreement no. 1852977.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved.
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/1/21
Y1 - 2021/1/21
N2 - This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2Oand ozonedepleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs ( standard deviations) are 1:030.37Wm2 for SO2emissions, 0:250.09Wm2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.150.17Wm2 for black carbon (BC) and 0:070.01Wm2 for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is 1:010.25Wm2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.670.17Wm2 for methane (CH4), 0.260.07Wm2 for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.120.2Wm2 for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx ), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.140.13, 0.090.14 and 0.200.07Wm2 respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.
AB - This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2Oand ozonedepleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs ( standard deviations) are 1:030.37Wm2 for SO2emissions, 0:250.09Wm2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.150.17Wm2 for black carbon (BC) and 0:070.01Wm2 for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is 1:010.25Wm2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.670.17Wm2 for methane (CH4), 0.260.07Wm2 for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.120.2Wm2 for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx ), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.140.13, 0.090.14 and 0.200.07Wm2 respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.
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U2 - 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021
DO - 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85099760883
VL - 21
SP - 853
EP - 874
JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
SN - 1680-7316
IS - 2
ER -