混雑度の偏りを考慮した避難所決定手法

The quick and appropriate evacuation of the disaster victims is one of great concern in the disaster situation. Under the disaster situations, it is general that the victims evacuate from the present location to the nearest evacuation center depending on evacuation guidance. However, in case of the situation that many victims are at biased distribution to specific areas, the guidance to the closest evacuation center concentrates many victims to particular evacuation. As a result, the victims who could not enter the closest evacuation center need to evacuate to other evacuation centers, until accepted. Therefore, the problem occurs that the evacuation of victims is delayed significantly. In this paper, to solve this problem, we propose an evacuation center determination method aimed at reducing the evacuation time of the whole victims. Specifically, the proposed method determines an evacuation center so that the evacuation time of all victims becomes short based on the location information of victims and the capacity of evacuation centers. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compared our proposed method with the shortest route selection method and random selection method, by using the simulation study assuming the situation of the Gion festival in Kyoto. As a result, when using the proposed method, we showed that the average evacuation time can be reduced to 35.9% compared with the shortest route selection method. Also, we confirmed that the average evacuation time can be reduced to 8.1% even if victims who follow the proposed method is 20% of the total. From these results, even if victims who follow the proposed method is a part of the total, we showed that our method can reduce the overall evacuation time, and contribute to disaster prevention.