Evaluation of a Triage Checklist for Mild COVID-19 Outpatients in Predicting Subsequent Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalization during the Isolation Period: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

Managing mild illness in COVID-19 and predicting progression to severe disease are concerning issues. Here, we investigated the outcomes of Japanese patients with mild COVID-19, and identified triage risk factors for further hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visits at a single tertiary hospital. A triage checklist with 30 factors was used. Patients recommended for isolation were followed up for 10 days for subsequent ED visits or hospital admission. Overall, 338 patients (median age, 44.0; 45% women) visited the clinic 5.0 days (median) after symptom onset. Thirty-six patients were immediately hospitalized following triage; others were isolated. In total, 72 non-hospitalized patients visited the ED during their isolation, and 30 were hospitalized after evaluation for oxygen desaturation. The median ED visit and hospitalization durations after symptom onset were 5.0 and 8.0 days, respectively. The checklist factors associated with hospitalization during isolation were age > 50 years, body mass index > 25 kg/m², hypertension, tachycardia with pulse rate > 100/min or blood pressure > 135 mmHg at triage, and >3-day delay in hospital visit after symptom onset. No patients died. Altogether, 80% of patients with mild COVID-19 could be safely isolated at home. Age, BMI, underlying hypertension, date after symptom onset, tachycardia, and systolic blood pressure at triage might be related to later hospitalization.