Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate

S. Watanabe, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, T. Takemura, H. Kawase, T. Nozawa

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    39 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Results of comprehensive long-term simulations of surface all-sky and clear-sky ultraviolet (UV) radiation through 1960-2100 are presented. A new earth system model, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, is used for the simulation, which considers key processes that change the surface UV radiation: atmospheric dynamics and chemistry affecting ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere, aerosols and clouds in the troposphere, and changes in surface albedo with sea ice and snow cover. In contrast to previous assessments considering only the effect of long-term change in stratospheric ozone, the simulated long-term behavior of UV radiation in this study is strongly affected by other processes. In one of two simulations, all-sky UV radiation in the northern midlatitudes is projected to increase in the 21st century despite the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Reductions in aerosols and clouds are expected to overcompensate for the effect of ozone recovery. The results are sensitive to the future socioeconomic scenario, describing GHG concentrations and emissions of aerosol and ozone precursors in the troposphere. The interannual variability of UV radiation associated with the 11 year solar cycle and local processes is also discussed.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article numberD16118
    JournalJournal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
    Volume116
    Issue number16
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2011

    Fingerprint

    ultraviolet radiation
    Ultraviolet radiation
    Stratospheric Ozone
    climate
    ozone
    projection
    Ozone
    Upper atmosphere
    Troposphere
    climate change
    aerosols
    troposphere
    Aerosols
    sky
    aerosol
    recovery
    Ozone layer
    ozonosphere
    simulation
    snow cover

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Geophysics
    • Forestry
    • Oceanography
    • Aquatic Science
    • Ecology
    • Water Science and Technology
    • Soil Science
    • Geochemistry and Petrology
    • Earth-Surface Processes
    • Atmospheric Science
    • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
    • Space and Planetary Science
    • Palaeontology

    Cite this

    Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate. / Watanabe, S.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Takemura, T.; Kawase, H.; Nozawa, T.

    In: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Vol. 116, No. 16, D16118, 01.01.2011.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Watanabe, S. ; Sudo, K. ; Nagashima, T. ; Takemura, T. ; Kawase, H. ; Nozawa, T. / Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate. In: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 2011 ; Vol. 116, No. 16.
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    AU - Kawase, H.

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