Future prospects of the household energy consumption: Scenario building of energy conservation for Hadano

Lifestyle of households has been changed to expect hygrothermal comfort and healthy environment through widespread use of space conditioning equipment. Meanwhile, energy conservation in buildings is strongly demanded for effective utilization of energy and resources and for environmental preservation. Therefore, optimization of architectural planning with consideration of future changes in building performance and lifestyle are necessary to maintain a balance between energy conservation, hygrothermal comfort and healthy environment. In this paper, household energy consumption is calculated according to applications of heating, cooling, hot-water supply, lighting, electrical appliances, etc. The calculation accuracy is confirmed through comparison with survey findings. Then the simplified prediction formulas of household specific energy consumption are created with multiple regression analysis based on the sensitivity analysis of dynamic energy simulation. And the many cases of household specific energy consumption variation with building specifications and family configuration are calculated. Furthermore, future prospects of the household energy consumption on single-family houses and multiple dwelling houses are examined with future changes of family configuration and building specifications in Hadano by 2030. As the result, it is clarified that the household energy consumption in 2030 will be likely to increase by 10.3% in single-family houses and by 1.4% in multiple dwelling houses by comparison with 1990 levels in case with no energy conservation measures. However it is possible to reduce household energy consumption by up to 38.3% and 36.3% in both houses in a case with energy conservation measures.