Global air quality and climate

Arlene M. Fiore, Vaishali Naik, Dominick V. Spracklen, Allison Steiner, Nadine Unger, Michael Prather, Dan Bergmann, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Veronika Eyring, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul Ginoux, Larry W. Horowitz, Béatrice Josse, Jean François Lamarque, Ian A. MacKenzie, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'ConnorMattia Righi, Steven T. Rumbold, Drew T. Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Kengo Sudo, Sophie Szopa, Toshihiko Takemura, Guang Zeng

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

    225 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH 4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH 4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)6663-6683
    Number of pages21
    JournalChemical Society Reviews
    Volume41
    Issue number19
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 7 2012

    Fingerprint

    Air quality
    Aerosols
    Climate change
    Air Pollutants
    Cooling
    Soot
    Climate models
    Volatile Organic Compounds
    Air pollution control
    Meteorology
    Particulate Matter
    Ozone
    Emission control
    Methane
    Ice
    Carbon Monoxide
    Snow
    Air pollution
    Nitrates
    Sulfates

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Chemistry(all)

    Cite this

    Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Spracklen, D. V., Steiner, A., Unger, N., Prather, M., ... Zeng, G. (2012). Global air quality and climate. Chemical Society Reviews, 41(19), 6663-6683. https://doi.org/10.1039/c2cs35095e

    Global air quality and climate. / Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W.; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean François; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang.

    In: Chemical Society Reviews, Vol. 41, No. 19, 07.10.2012, p. 6663-6683.

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

    Fiore, AM, Naik, V, Spracklen, DV, Steiner, A, Unger, N, Prather, M, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, PJ, Cionni, I, Collins, WJ, Dalsoren, S, Eyring, V, Folberth, GA, Ginoux, P, Horowitz, LW, Josse, B, Lamarque, JF, MacKenzie, IA, Nagashima, T, O'Connor, FM, Righi, M, Rumbold, ST, Shindell, DT, Skeie, RB, Sudo, K, Szopa, S, Takemura, T & Zeng, G 2012, 'Global air quality and climate', Chemical Society Reviews, vol. 41, no. 19, pp. 6663-6683. https://doi.org/10.1039/c2cs35095e
    Fiore AM, Naik V, Spracklen DV, Steiner A, Unger N, Prather M et al. Global air quality and climate. Chemical Society Reviews. 2012 Oct 7;41(19):6663-6683. https://doi.org/10.1039/c2cs35095e
    Fiore, Arlene M. ; Naik, Vaishali ; Spracklen, Dominick V. ; Steiner, Allison ; Unger, Nadine ; Prather, Michael ; Bergmann, Dan ; Cameron-Smith, Philip J. ; Cionni, Irene ; Collins, William J. ; Dalsoren, Stig ; Eyring, Veronika ; Folberth, Gerd A. ; Ginoux, Paul ; Horowitz, Larry W. ; Josse, Béatrice ; Lamarque, Jean François ; MacKenzie, Ian A. ; Nagashima, Tatsuya ; O'Connor, Fiona M. ; Righi, Mattia ; Rumbold, Steven T. ; Shindell, Drew T. ; Skeie, Ragnhild B. ; Sudo, Kengo ; Szopa, Sophie ; Takemura, Toshihiko ; Zeng, Guang. / Global air quality and climate. In: Chemical Society Reviews. 2012 ; Vol. 41, No. 19. pp. 6663-6683.
    @article{e0ec6f7de596443abd6699397b313620,
    title = "Global air quality and climate",
    abstract = "Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH 4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH 4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.",
    author = "Fiore, {Arlene M.} and Vaishali Naik and Spracklen, {Dominick V.} and Allison Steiner and Nadine Unger and Michael Prather and Dan Bergmann and Cameron-Smith, {Philip J.} and Irene Cionni and Collins, {William J.} and Stig Dalsoren and Veronika Eyring and Folberth, {Gerd A.} and Paul Ginoux and Horowitz, {Larry W.} and B{\'e}atrice Josse and Lamarque, {Jean Fran{\cc}ois} and MacKenzie, {Ian A.} and Tatsuya Nagashima and O'Connor, {Fiona M.} and Mattia Righi and Rumbold, {Steven T.} and Shindell, {Drew T.} and Skeie, {Ragnhild B.} and Kengo Sudo and Sophie Szopa and Toshihiko Takemura and Guang Zeng",
    year = "2012",
    month = "10",
    day = "7",
    doi = "10.1039/c2cs35095e",
    language = "English",
    volume = "41",
    pages = "6663--6683",
    journal = "Chemical Society Reviews",
    issn = "0306-0012",
    publisher = "Royal Society of Chemistry",
    number = "19",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Global air quality and climate

    AU - Fiore, Arlene M.

    AU - Naik, Vaishali

    AU - Spracklen, Dominick V.

    AU - Steiner, Allison

    AU - Unger, Nadine

    AU - Prather, Michael

    AU - Bergmann, Dan

    AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip J.

    AU - Cionni, Irene

    AU - Collins, William J.

    AU - Dalsoren, Stig

    AU - Eyring, Veronika

    AU - Folberth, Gerd A.

    AU - Ginoux, Paul

    AU - Horowitz, Larry W.

    AU - Josse, Béatrice

    AU - Lamarque, Jean François

    AU - MacKenzie, Ian A.

    AU - Nagashima, Tatsuya

    AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.

    AU - Righi, Mattia

    AU - Rumbold, Steven T.

    AU - Shindell, Drew T.

    AU - Skeie, Ragnhild B.

    AU - Sudo, Kengo

    AU - Szopa, Sophie

    AU - Takemura, Toshihiko

    AU - Zeng, Guang

    PY - 2012/10/7

    Y1 - 2012/10/7

    N2 - Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH 4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH 4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

    AB - Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH 4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO x) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH 4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84868698355&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84868698355&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1039/c2cs35095e

    DO - 10.1039/c2cs35095e

    M3 - Review article

    C2 - 22868337

    AN - SCOPUS:84868698355

    VL - 41

    SP - 6663

    EP - 6683

    JO - Chemical Society Reviews

    JF - Chemical Society Reviews

    SN - 0306-0012

    IS - 19

    ER -