TY - JOUR
T1 - Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations
AU - Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt
AU - Myhre, Gunnar
AU - Hodnebrog, Øivind
AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip J.
AU - Deushi, Makoto
AU - Hegglin, Michaela I.
AU - Horowitz, Larry W.
AU - Kramer, Ryan J.
AU - Michou, Martine
AU - Mills, Michael J.
AU - Olivié, Dirk J.L.
AU - Connor, Fiona M.O’
AU - Paynter, David
AU - Samset, Bjørn H.
AU - Sellar, Alistair
AU - Shindell, Drew
AU - Takemura, Toshihiko
AU - Tilmes, Simone
AU - Wu, Tongwen
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. R.B.S. and G.M. were funded through the Norwegian Research Council project KEYCLIM (grant number 295046) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement 820829 (CONSTRAIN). D.S. acknowledges support from NASA-GISS and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation. F.M.O.C. and A.S. acknowledge funding from the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). F.M.O.C. also acknowledges the EU Horizon 2020 Research Programme CRESCENDO project, grant agreement number 641816. M. D. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant numbers: JP20K04070). R.K. acknowledges support from an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, administered by Universities Space Research Associated. The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement Number 1852977. The work of P.J.C.-S. was performed at LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was supported as part of the E3SM project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, and used resources of the NERSC Computing Center, which is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract Number DE-AC02-05CH11231.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12/1
Y1 - 2020/12/1
N2 - Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.
AB - Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089478325&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85089478325&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0
DO - 10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85089478325
VL - 3
JO - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
SN - 2397-3722
IS - 1
M1 - 32
ER -
