How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?

Shinobu Utsumi, Md Rajib Arefin, Yuichi Tatsukawa, Jun Tanimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

COVID-19 has shown that quarantine (or self-isolation) may be the only available tool against an unknown infectious disease if neither an effective vaccine nor anti-viral medication is available. Motivated by the fact that a considerable number of people were not compliant with the request for self-quarantine made by public authorities, this study used a multi-agent simulation model, whose results were validated by theory work, which highlights how and to what extent such an anti-social behavior hampers the confinement of a disease. Our framework quantifies two important scenarios: in one scenario a certain number of individuals totally ignore quarantine, whereas in the second scenario a larger number of individuals partially ignore the imposed policy. Our results reveal that the latter scenario can be more hazardous even if the total amount of social deficit of activity—measured by the total number of severed links in a physical network—would be same as the former scenario has, of which quantitative extent is dependent on the fraction of asymptomatic infected cases and the level of quarantine intensity the government imposing. Our findings have significance not only to epidemiology but also to research in the broader field of network science. PACS numbers: Theory and modeling; computer simulation, 87.15.Aa; Dynamics of evolution, 87.23.Kg.

Original languageEnglish
Article number112178
JournalChaos, solitons and fractals
Volume159
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Mathematical Physics
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this