Hydrological flood simulation using a design hyetograph created from extreme weather data of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model

Nobuaki Kimura, Akira Tai, Shen Chiang, Hsiao Ping Wei, Yuan Fong Su, Chao Tzuen Cheng, Akio Kitoh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data sets were projected with a general circulation model with high spatial and temporal resolution and used with a flood model to simulate the higher discharge peaks for the top 10 events of each term in a local watershed. The conventional-like ranking method, in which only a dimensionless shape is considered for the creation of a design hyetograph for a temporal distribution of rainfall, likely results in overestimates of discharge peaks because, even with a lower peak of rainfall intensity and a smaller amount of cumulative rainfall, the distribution shape is the only the factor for the design hyetograph. However, the modified ranking method, which considers amounts of cumulative rainfalls, provides a discharge peak from the design hyetograph less affected by a smaller cumulative rainfall depth for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of global climate change indicate that future discharge peaks will increase by up to three times of those of Present-term peaks, which may result in difficult flood control for the downstream river reaches.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)345-366
Number of pages22
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Volume6
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2014

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General Circulation Models
Weather
atmospheric general circulation model
meteorological data
Rain
ranking
natural disaster
Climate Change
weather
rain
peak discharge
rainfall
simulation
climate change
event
present
Rivers
river
global climate
Climate change

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Aquatic Science
  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Hydrological flood simulation using a design hyetograph created from extreme weather data of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. / Kimura, Nobuaki; Tai, Akira; Chiang, Shen; Wei, Hsiao Ping; Su, Yuan Fong; Cheng, Chao Tzuen; Kitoh, Akio.

In: Water (Switzerland), Vol. 6, No. 2, 01.01.2014, p. 345-366.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kimura, Nobuaki ; Tai, Akira ; Chiang, Shen ; Wei, Hsiao Ping ; Su, Yuan Fong ; Cheng, Chao Tzuen ; Kitoh, Akio. / Hydrological flood simulation using a design hyetograph created from extreme weather data of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. In: Water (Switzerland). 2014 ; Vol. 6, No. 2. pp. 345-366.
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