Hydrological flood simulation using a design hyetograph created from extreme weather data of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model

Nobuaki Kimura, Akira Tai, Shen Chiang, Hsiao Ping Wei, Yuan Fong Su, Chao Tzuen Cheng, Akio Kitoh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data sets were projected with a general circulation model with high spatial and temporal resolution and used with a flood model to simulate the higher discharge peaks for the top 10 events of each term in a local watershed. The conventional-like ranking method, in which only a dimensionless shape is considered for the creation of a design hyetograph for a temporal distribution of rainfall, likely results in overestimates of discharge peaks because, even with a lower peak of rainfall intensity and a smaller amount of cumulative rainfall, the distribution shape is the only the factor for the design hyetograph. However, the modified ranking method, which considers amounts of cumulative rainfalls, provides a discharge peak from the design hyetograph less affected by a smaller cumulative rainfall depth for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of global climate change indicate that future discharge peaks will increase by up to three times of those of Present-term peaks, which may result in difficult flood control for the downstream river reaches.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)345-366
Number of pages22
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Volume6
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Biochemistry
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Aquatic Science
  • Water Science and Technology

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