Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan

Yoshinori Shinohara, Tomo'omi Kumagai, Kyoichi Otsuki, Atsushi Kume, Naoya Wada

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Hydrologic balance in high-altitude, mid-latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid-latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long-term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997-2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965-2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole-year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1418-1429
Number of pages12
JournalHydrological Processes
Volume23
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 15 2009

Fingerprint

catchment
probability density function
runoff
climate change
mountain
summer
snowmelt
global warming
environmental factor
water resource
winter
climate
simulation
temperature
effect
rate
parameter
hydrologic balance
budget

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan. / Shinohara, Yoshinori; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Otsuki, Kyoichi; Kume, Atsushi; Wada, Naoya.

In: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 23, No. 10, 15.05.2009, p. 1418-1429.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Shinohara, Yoshinori ; Kumagai, Tomo'omi ; Otsuki, Kyoichi ; Kume, Atsushi ; Wada, Naoya. / Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan. In: Hydrological Processes. 2009 ; Vol. 23, No. 10. pp. 1418-1429.
@article{0f5ba8d02ff44232895d777a662e751b,
title = "Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan",
abstract = "Hydrologic balance in high-altitude, mid-latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid-latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long-term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997-2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965-2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole-year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q.",
author = "Yoshinori Shinohara and Tomo'omi Kumagai and Kyoichi Otsuki and Atsushi Kume and Naoya Wada",
year = "2009",
month = "5",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1002/hyp.7264",
language = "English",
volume = "23",
pages = "1418--1429",
journal = "Hydrological Processes",
issn = "0885-6087",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid-latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan

AU - Shinohara, Yoshinori

AU - Kumagai, Tomo'omi

AU - Otsuki, Kyoichi

AU - Kume, Atsushi

AU - Wada, Naoya

PY - 2009/5/15

Y1 - 2009/5/15

N2 - Hydrologic balance in high-altitude, mid-latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid-latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long-term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997-2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965-2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole-year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q.

AB - Hydrologic balance in high-altitude, mid-latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid-latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long-term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997-2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965-2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole-year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=65449132353&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=65449132353&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/hyp.7264

DO - 10.1002/hyp.7264

M3 - Article

VL - 23

SP - 1418

EP - 1429

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 10

ER -