Improvement of stochastic typhoon model for the purpose of simulating typhoons and storm surges unger global warming

Hiroyasu Kawai, Noriaki Hashimoto, Kuniaki Matsuura

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A stochastic typhoon model, simulating typhoon parameters during a certain long period with the Monte Carlo method, have been developed based on the statistics of past typhoons around Japan. This study assumed a simple variation of typhoon parameter fields due to global warming and improved the stochastic typhoon model to give stochastic typhoon parameters in future climate. Then the study computed the storm surges by the stochastic typhoons in Seto Inland Sea and estimated the extreme-value function of the tidal levels. The result shows that a higher tidal level than the present design one for storm surge defense facilities may appear with a long return period even in present climate. Both typhoon intensity increase and mean sea level rise may increase the frequency of a disastrous high tidal level. The regionality related to the bathymetry can be found in extreme tidal levels.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2006, ICCE 2006
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages1838-1850
Number of pages13
ISBN (Print)9789812706362
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2007
Event30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2006 - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: Sep 3 2006Sep 8 2006

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference
ISSN (Print)0161-3782

Other

Other30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2006
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA
Period9/3/069/8/06

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Oceanography

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    Kawai, H., Hashimoto, N., & Matsuura, K. (2007). Improvement of stochastic typhoon model for the purpose of simulating typhoons and storm surges unger global warming. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering 2006, ICCE 2006 (pp. 1838-1850). (Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812709554_0155