Monthly electric load forecasting using GMDH

Junichi Murata, S. Sagara

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

Abstract

A forecasting method with their objective representations is proposed. A trend of monthly load data, as well as the remained stationary component, is modeled by use of GMDH. Then forecasts are calculated using the models. Owing to the feature of GMDH as a heuristic self-organizing method, models just fit for the data in hand can be obtained without any modifications of the modeling algorithm, even if the underlying characteristics of the data are changed. Therefore the method can be applied in various situations with observed data containing different nonstationary characteristics. Results of the application to several sets of load data in Japan with and without abrupt changes demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1197-1202
Number of pages6
JournalIFAC Proceedings Series
Volume2
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 1989
EventEighth IFAC/IFORS Symposium on Identification and System Parameter Estimation 1988. Part 1 - Beijing, China
Duration: Aug 27 1988Aug 31 1988

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Electric load forecasting
forecasting method
heuristics
modeling
method

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Monthly electric load forecasting using GMDH. / Murata, Junichi; Sagara, S.

In: IFAC Proceedings Series, Vol. 2, No. 8, 01.12.1989, p. 1197-1202.

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

Murata, J & Sagara, S 1989, 'Monthly electric load forecasting using GMDH', IFAC Proceedings Series, vol. 2, no. 8, pp. 1197-1202.
Murata, Junichi ; Sagara, S. / Monthly electric load forecasting using GMDH. In: IFAC Proceedings Series. 1989 ; Vol. 2, No. 8. pp. 1197-1202.
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