Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

Daisuke Onozuka, Akihito Hagihara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1253-1259
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Biometeorology
Volume59
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 13 2015

Fingerprint

influenza
Climate
Human Influenza
Japan
Indian Ocean
climate
Southern Oscillation
Incidence
synchrony
Wavelet Analysis
early warning system
wavelet analysis
global climate
seasonal variation
Indian Ocean Dipole

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Cite this

Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan. / Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito.

In: International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 59, No. 9, 13.09.2015, p. 1253-1259.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{9765eddd9ca8449f8be3031cd3735549,
title = "Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan",
abstract = "Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Ni{\~n}o 4, and Ni{\~n}o 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.",
author = "Daisuke Onozuka and Akihito Hagihara",
year = "2015",
month = "9",
day = "13",
doi = "10.1007/s00484-014-0936-z",
language = "English",
volume = "59",
pages = "1253--1259",
journal = "International Journal of Biometeorology",
issn = "0020-7128",
publisher = "Springer New York",
number = "9",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

AU - Onozuka, Daisuke

AU - Hagihara, Akihito

PY - 2015/9/13

Y1 - 2015/9/13

N2 - Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

AB - Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84938986654&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84938986654&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00484-014-0936-z

DO - 10.1007/s00484-014-0936-z

M3 - Article

VL - 59

SP - 1253

EP - 1259

JO - International Journal of Biometeorology

JF - International Journal of Biometeorology

SN - 0020-7128

IS - 9

ER -