Optimal generation schedule in micro-grids considering the possible damage by uncertainties of forecasts

The optimal generation schedule of controllable generators is necessary considering both the supply-demand balancing and the economy of generation. The conventional methods minimize the operation cost with a constraint to guarantee that the operating generators can readily change their outputs to meet the demand variation. Installation of nature-affected generations such as wind turbines and photovoltaic generation makes it harder for operating generators to compensate the variation, because their forecasts contain significant errors. In this research, the damage caused by possible supply-demand imbalance arising from the large uncertainties of forecasts is evaluated by penalty which represents the necessary additional cost to fix the imbalance. Due to the random nature of the forecast errors, the penalty is evaluated as an expectation. The optimal generation schedule is obtained by minimizing the summation of expectation of penalty and the operation cost. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can achieve the generation schedule with less total cost than the conventional methods.