Predictability of stratospheric sudden warmings as inferred from ensemble forecast data: Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 winters

Toshihiko Hirooka, Tomoko Ichimaru, Hitoshi Mukougawa

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21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The predictability of a minor warming and the subsequent major warming in the winter of 2003/04 is examined in comparison with that of the major warming without preceding minor warmings in December 2001 by the use of operational ensemble 1-month forecast data produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the case of the major warming in December 2001 caused by amplified zonal wavenumber 1 planetary waves, the predictable period based on zonal mean temperatures in the polar stratosphere is estimated to be at least 16 days, while the warmings in the winter of 2003/04 are predictable at most 9 days in advance. Such relatively reduced predictability for the latter warmings is considered due to the rather complicated time evolution of the warming episodes with a significant contribution of smaller-scale planetary waves during the period prior to the warmings.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)919-925
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan
Volume85
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2007

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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