Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L. P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. MateiG. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang, S. Yeager

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)11,895-11,903
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume45
Issue number21
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 16 2018
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this