Predicting pedestrian conflict avoidance behavior on the roads surrounding schools when children are coming to and from schools

Road traffic accidents when children arrive and depart from schools are the major cause of childhood injuries. In China, the school roads are typical of roads with mixed pedestrian and automotive traffic. The roads are narrow, and also have a very high traffic during the start and finish of the school period, which creates a high risk for children. The intent of this paper is to investigate ways of securing the road and guaranteeing the safety of children. In this research we use typical pedestrian's avoidance behavior as an indicator of the dangers to the children and discrete choice model methods of predicting the dangers. Through this model, we quantitatively evaluate the dangers existing in school roads, develop an understanding of microscopic mechanisms of road traffic, and conclude by quantifying and evaluating the possible effects of traffic improvement measures.