Hybridization between native and non-native fishes is a serious global problem. Thus, there is a need to develop monitoring methods for predicting potential hybridization to evaluate the risk of genetic introgression and to identify important areas for conservation of pure native populations. Here, we developed a prediction model for intersubspecific hybridization, based on distribution and genetic data. We selected Rhodeus ocellatus kurumeus and R. ocellatus ocellatus as the native and non-native subspecies, respectively. First, we developed generalized linear models (GLMs) for the species habitat requirements by using presence/absence data and environmental variables. The best-fit models showed river length gave conflicting effects for the two subspecies. Next, we developed a GLM using the ratio of non-native haplotypes in mitochondrial DNA as an objective variable, with the predicted probabilities of the occurrence of each fish and spatial information as explanatory variables. The best-fit model selected the distance from the center of native distribution and the non-native habitat requirement as key factors. Our findings indicate that hybridization occurs highly and/or initially near the margin of native distribution where non-native habitat requirements are available. Our model could identify sites in native habitats with very low potential risk for genetic invasion as important areas for conservation of pure native populations.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Aquatic Science
- Water Science and Technology