Prediction of existence probability of Abies Firma seedlings in cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations in Kirishima

To select suitable sites for restoring plantations to natural Abies firma and Tsuga sieboldii forests in the Kirishima mountain region, the likelihood of the existence of Abies seedlings was predicted using logistic regression analysis. Using information on natural forest patches and individual mature trees as seed sources, the results of the model selection procedure showed that the existence of seedlings was best predicted when the distance from a mature tree and the basal area of the mature tree in a natural forest were considered. In other words, Abies seedlings tend to exist near large mature trees in a plantation. Moreover, to select a suitable site for restoration, information on individual mature trees is indispensable for predicting the likelihood of seedling existence with high accuracy.