Prediction of hemodynamics after atrial septal defect closure using a framework of circulatory equilibrium in dogs

In patients with heart failure, atrial septal defect (ASD) closure has a risk of inducing life-threatening acute pulmonary edema. The objective of this study was to develop a novel framework for quantitative prediction of hemodynamics after ASD closure. The generalized circulatory equilibrium comprises right and left cardiac output (CO) curves and pulmonary and systemic venous return surfaces. We incorporated ASD into the framework of circulatory equilibrium by representing ASD shunt flow (QASD) by the difference between pulmonary flow (QP) and systemic flow (QS). To examine the accuracy of prediction, we created ASD in six dogs. Four weeks after ASD creation, we measured left atrial pressure (PLA), right atrial pressure (P_RA), Q_P, and Qs before and after ASD balloon occlusion. We then predicted postocclusion hemodynamics from measured preocclusion hemodynamics. Finally, we numerically simulated hemodynamics under various ASD diameters while changing left and right ventricular function. Predicted postocclusion PLA, PRA, and QS from preocclusion hemodynamics matched well with those measured [P_LA: coefficient of determination (r²) = 0.96, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 0.89 mmHg, P_RA: r² = 0.98, SEE = 0.26 mmHg, Q_S: r² = 0.97, SEE = 5.6 mL·min-¹·kg-¹]. A simulation study demonstrated that ASD closure increases the risk of pulmonary edema in patients with impaired left ventricular function and normal right ventricular function, indicating the importance of evaluation for the balance between right and left ventricular function. ASD shunt incorporated into the generalized circulatory equilibrium accurately predicted hemodynamics after ASD closure, which would facilitate safety management of ASD closure. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We developed a framework to predict the impact of atrial septal defect (ASD) closure on hemodynamics by incorporating ASD shunt flow into the framework of circulatory equilibrium. The proposed framework accurately predicted hemodynamics after ASD closure. Patient-specific prediction of hemodynamics may be useful for safety management of ASD closure.