Predictive factors of mortality of patients with fragility hip fractures at 1 year after discharge: A multicenter, retrospective study in the northern Kyushu district of Japan

Atsushi Kimura, Yoshihiro Matsumoto, Yoshifumi Wakata, Akiko Oyamada, Masanobu Ohishi, Toshifumi Fujiwara, Ko Ikuta, Kuniyoshi Tsuchiya, Naohisa Tayama, Shinji Tomari, Hisaaki Miyahara, Takao Mae, Toshihiko Hara, Taichi Saito, Takeshi Arizono, Kozo Kaji, Taro Mawatari, Masami Fujiwara, Riku Sakimura, Kunichika ShinKenichi Ninomiya, Kazutoshi Nakaie, Yasuaki Antoku, Shoji Tokunaga, Naoki Nakashima, Yukihide Iwamoto, Yasuharu Nakashima

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Abstract

Purpose: Fragility hip fractures (FHFs) are associated with a high risk of mortality, but the relative contribution of various factors remains controversial. This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors of mortality at 1 year after discharge in Japan. Methods: A total of 497 patients aged 60 years or older who sustained FHFs during follow-up were included in this study. Expected variables were finally assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results: The 1-year mortality rate was 9.1% (95% confidence interval: 6.8–12.0%, n = 45). Log-rank test revealed that previous fractures (p = 0.003), Barthel index (BI) at discharge (p = 0.011), and place-to-discharge (p = 0.004) were significantly associated with mortality for male patients. Meanwhile, body mass index (BMI; p = 0.023), total Charlson comorbidity index (TCCI; p = 0.005), smoking (p = 0.007), length of hospital stay (LOS; p = 0.009), and BI (p = 0.004) were the counterparts for females. By multivariate analyses, previous vertebral fractures (hazard ratio (HR) 3.33; p = 0.044), and BI <30 (HR 5.42, p = 0.013) were the predictive variables of mortality for male patients. BMI <18.5 kg/m2 (HR 2.70, p = 0.023), TCCI ≥5 (HR 2.61, p = 0.032), smoking history (HR 3.59, p = 0.018), LOS <14 days (HR 13.9; p = 0.007), and BI <30 (HR 2.76; p = 0.049) were the counterparts for females. Conclusions: Previous vertebral fractures and BI <30 were the predictive variables of mortality for male patients, and BMI <18.5 kg/m2, TCCI ≥5, smoking history, LOS <14 days, and BI <30 were those for females. Decreased BI is one of the independent and preventable risk factors. A comprehensive therapeutic approach should be considered to prevent deterioration of activities of daily living and a higher risk of mortality.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Orthopaedic Surgery
Volume27
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Surgery

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