Prevention of avian influenza epidemic: What policy should we choose?

Shingo Iwami, Yasuhiro Takeuchi, Andrei Korobeinikov, Xianning Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza has been extremely rarely reported, and is considered as limited, inefficient and unsustained. However, experts warn an occurrence of "mutant avian influenza", which can easily spread among humans, because the avian influenza is already endemic, in particular in Asian poultry, and it is evolving in domestic and wild birds, pigs and humans. Outbreak of such mutant avian influenza in the human world may have devastating consequences, which are comparable with these for the 1918 "Spanish influenza". In this paper we develop a mathematical model for the spread of the mutant avian influenza, and explore the effectivity of the prevention policies, namely the elimination policy which increases the effective additional death rate of the infected birds and the quarantine policy which reduces the number of infective contacts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)732-741
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume252
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 21 2008
Externally publishedYes

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Influenza in Birds
Influenza
Birds
avian influenza
Choose
Poultry
Mutant
mutants
Human Influenza
Mathematical models
Quarantine
human influenza
wild birds
quarantine
influenza
Disease Outbreaks
poultry
Theoretical Models
mathematical models
Swine

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

Prevention of avian influenza epidemic : What policy should we choose? / Iwami, Shingo; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Korobeinikov, Andrei; Liu, Xianning.

In: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 252, No. 4, 21.06.2008, p. 732-741.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Iwami, Shingo ; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro ; Korobeinikov, Andrei ; Liu, Xianning. / Prevention of avian influenza epidemic : What policy should we choose?. In: Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2008 ; Vol. 252, No. 4. pp. 732-741.
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