Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease

The BioBank Japan project

Biobank Japan Cooperative Hospital Group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction) were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039) and validation cohort (n = 5019). These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively) in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)S71-S76
JournalJournal of epidemiology
Volume27
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2017

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Cause of Death
Japan
Cardiovascular Diseases
Mortality
Calibration
Drinking
Body Mass Index
Smoking
Stroke
Myocardial Infarction
Cholesterol
Databases
Exercise
Hypertension

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease : The BioBank Japan project. / Biobank Japan Cooperative Hospital Group.

In: Journal of epidemiology, Vol. 27, No. 3, 01.01.2017, p. S71-S76.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Biobank Japan Cooperative Hospital Group. / Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease : The BioBank Japan project. In: Journal of epidemiology. 2017 ; Vol. 27, No. 3. pp. S71-S76.
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title = "Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: The BioBank Japan project",
abstract = "Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction) were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039) and validation cohort (n = 5019). These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively) in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.",
author = "{Biobank Japan Cooperative Hospital Group} and Jun Hata and Akiko Nagai and Jun Hata and Yoichiro Kamatani and Akiko Tamakoshi and Zentaro Yamagata and Kaori Muto and Koichi Matsuda and Michiaki Kubo and Yusuke Nakamura and Yutaka Kiyohara and Toshiharu Ninomiya and Shigeru Saito and Toshiharu Ninomiya and Sinichi Higashiue and Kazuo Misumi and Shiro Minami and Masahiro Yasutake and Hitoshi Takano and Kazunori Shimada and Hakuoh Konishi and Nobukazu Miyamoto and Satoshi Asai and Mitsuhiko Moriyama and Yasuo Takahashi and Tomoaki Fujioka and Wataru Obara and Seijiro Mori and Hideki Ito and Satoshi Nagayama and Yoshio Miki and Akihide Masumoto and Akira Yamada and Yasuko Nishizawa and Ken Kodama and Yoshihisa Sugimoto and Takashi Ashihara and Yukihiro Koretsune and Sachiko Ikeda and Ryozo Yano",
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T2 - The BioBank Japan project

AU - Biobank Japan Cooperative Hospital Group

AU - Hata, Jun

AU - Nagai, Akiko

AU - Hata, Jun

AU - Kamatani, Yoichiro

AU - Tamakoshi, Akiko

AU - Yamagata, Zentaro

AU - Muto, Kaori

AU - Matsuda, Koichi

AU - Kubo, Michiaki

AU - Nakamura, Yusuke

AU - Kiyohara, Yutaka

AU - Ninomiya, Toshiharu

AU - Saito, Shigeru

AU - Ninomiya, Toshiharu

AU - Higashiue, Sinichi

AU - Misumi, Kazuo

AU - Minami, Shiro

AU - Yasutake, Masahiro

AU - Takano, Hitoshi

AU - Shimada, Kazunori

AU - Konishi, Hakuoh

AU - Miyamoto, Nobukazu

AU - Asai, Satoshi

AU - Moriyama, Mitsuhiko

AU - Takahashi, Yasuo

AU - Fujioka, Tomoaki

AU - Obara, Wataru

AU - Mori, Seijiro

AU - Ito, Hideki

AU - Nagayama, Satoshi

AU - Miki, Yoshio

AU - Masumoto, Akihide

AU - Yamada, Akira

AU - Nishizawa, Yasuko

AU - Kodama, Ken

AU - Sugimoto, Yoshihisa

AU - Ashihara, Takashi

AU - Koretsune, Yukihiro

AU - Ikeda, Sachiko

AU - Yano, Ryozo

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction) were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039) and validation cohort (n = 5019). These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively) in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.

AB - Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction) were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039) and validation cohort (n = 5019). These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively) in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.

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DO - 10.1016/j.je.2016.10.007

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