Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan

Daisuke Onozuka, Akihito Hagihara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Methods Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. Results We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0–10 days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12–1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Conclusions Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)401-407
Number of pages7
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume583
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 1 2017

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summer
Temperature
morbidity
Low temperature effects
cardiovascular disease
meta-analysis
Public health
hospital
Hot Temperature
temperature effect
Regression analysis
homogeneity
public health
Time series
regression analysis
time series
temperature
effect

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Pollution

Cite this

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan. / Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 583, 01.04.2017, p. 401-407.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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N2 - Background Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Methods Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. Results We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0–10 days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12–1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Conclusions Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer.

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