Sustainable wastewater management in Indonesia's fish processing industry: Bringing governance into scenario analysis

The government of Indonesia has pledged to meet ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation goals in its Nationally Determined Contribution as well as reduce water pollution through its water management policies. A set of technologies could conceivably help achieving these goals simultaneously. However, the installation and widespread application of these technologies will require knowledge on how governance affects the implementation of existing policies as well as cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders. This paper integrates key governance variables--involving enforcement capacity, institutional coordination and multi-actor networks--into an analysis of the potential impacts on greenhouse gases and chemical oxygen demand in seven wastewater treatment scenarios for the fish processing industry in Indonesia. The analysis demonstrates that there is an increase of 24% in both CH₄ and CO₂ emissions between 2015 and 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario due to growth in production volumes. Interestingly, in scenarios focusing only on strengthening capacities to enforce national water policies, expected total greenhouse gas emissions are about five times higher than in the business-as-usual in 2030; this is due to growth in CH₄ emissions during the handling and landfilling of sludge, as well as in CO₂ generated from the electricity required for wastewater treatment. In the scenarios where there is significant cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders to integrate climate and water goals, both estimated chemical oxygen demand and CH₄ emissions are considerably lower than in the business-as-usual and the national water policy scenarios.