The effect of remittance on energy consumption: Panel cointegration and dynamic causality analysis for South Asian countries

This paper examines the effect of remittance income on energy consumption and the economy between 1976 and 2019 in the four highest remittance recipient nations of South Asia. The detailed analysis explores long-run and directional relationships utilizing stationary tests, the panel cointegration test, dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), and Granger causality tests using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study reveals the presence of long-run relationships among remittances, energy consumption, GDP and urbanization. Cointegrating regression identifies that remittance income, economic growth and urbanization individually have a positive and significant effect on energy consumption in the long-run. Results showed that a 1% increase in remittance income results in a 0.045% increase in energy consumption. Among nations analyzed, this effect was found to be strongly dominant in case of Bangladesh and Pakistan. The statistically significant and negative coefficient of the error correction term confirms long-run causality from remittance, GDP, and urbanization toward energy consumption. Variance decomposition analysis demonstrated that energy usage is heavily impacted by remittance inflows among studied variables. Policy implications of this study suggest that higher remittance inflows will increase energy consumption in South Asian countries, engendering positive economic growth and sustainable development.