Trends in dementia prevalence, incidence, and survival rate in a Japanese community

Tomoyuki Ohara, Jun Hata, Daigo Yoshida, Naoko Mukai, Masaharu Nagata, Toru Iwaki, Takanari Kitazono, Shigenobu Kanba, Yutaka Kiyohara, Toshiharu Ninomiya

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Objective: To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner. Methods: Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years. Results: The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8% in 1985, 4.6% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998, 8.4% in 2005, and 11.3% in 2012, p for trend <0.01; for AD: 1.5%, 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 7.2%, respectively, p for trend <0.01), while no secular change was observed for vascular dementia (VaD) (2.4%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 2.4%, and 2.4%, respectively, p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.06; for AD: AHR 2.07, 95% CI 1.59-2.70; for VaD: AHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.83-1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3% to 65.2%; for AD: 50.7% to 75.1%; all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1925-1932
Number of pages8
JournalNeurology
Volume88
Issue number20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 16 2017

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Dementia
Survival Rate
Alzheimer Disease
Incidence
Vascular Dementia
Confidence Intervals
Age Groups
Cross-Sectional Studies
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Clinical Neurology

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Trends in dementia prevalence, incidence, and survival rate in a Japanese community. / Ohara, Tomoyuki; Hata, Jun; Yoshida, Daigo; Mukai, Naoko; Nagata, Masaharu; Iwaki, Toru; Kitazono, Takanari; Kanba, Shigenobu; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Ninomiya, Toshiharu.

In: Neurology, Vol. 88, No. 20, 16.05.2017, p. 1925-1932.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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title = "Trends in dementia prevalence, incidence, and survival rate in a Japanese community",
abstract = "Objective: To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner. Methods: Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years. Results: The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8{\%} in 1985, 4.6{\%} in 1992, 5.3{\%} in 1998, 8.4{\%} in 2005, and 11.3{\%} in 2012, p for trend <0.01; for AD: 1.5{\%}, 1.4{\%}, 2.4{\%}, 3.9{\%}, and 7.2{\%}, respectively, p for trend <0.01), while no secular change was observed for vascular dementia (VaD) (2.4{\%}, 1.6{\%}, 1.5{\%}, 2.4{\%}, and 2.4{\%}, respectively, p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95{\%} confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.06; for AD: AHR 2.07, 95{\%} CI 1.59-2.70; for VaD: AHR 1.18, 95{\%} CI 0.83-1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3{\%} to 65.2{\%}; for AD: 50.7{\%} to 75.1{\%}; all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.",
author = "Tomoyuki Ohara and Jun Hata and Daigo Yoshida and Naoko Mukai and Masaharu Nagata and Toru Iwaki and Takanari Kitazono and Shigenobu Kanba and Yutaka Kiyohara and Toshiharu Ninomiya",
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T1 - Trends in dementia prevalence, incidence, and survival rate in a Japanese community

AU - Ohara, Tomoyuki

AU - Hata, Jun

AU - Yoshida, Daigo

AU - Mukai, Naoko

AU - Nagata, Masaharu

AU - Iwaki, Toru

AU - Kitazono, Takanari

AU - Kanba, Shigenobu

AU - Kiyohara, Yutaka

AU - Ninomiya, Toshiharu

PY - 2017/5/16

Y1 - 2017/5/16

N2 - Objective: To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner. Methods: Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years. Results: The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8% in 1985, 4.6% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998, 8.4% in 2005, and 11.3% in 2012, p for trend <0.01; for AD: 1.5%, 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 7.2%, respectively, p for trend <0.01), while no secular change was observed for vascular dementia (VaD) (2.4%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 2.4%, and 2.4%, respectively, p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.06; for AD: AHR 2.07, 95% CI 1.59-2.70; for VaD: AHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.83-1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3% to 65.2%; for AD: 50.7% to 75.1%; all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.

AB - Objective: To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner. Methods: Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years. Results: The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8% in 1985, 4.6% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998, 8.4% in 2005, and 11.3% in 2012, p for trend <0.01; for AD: 1.5%, 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 7.2%, respectively, p for trend <0.01), while no secular change was observed for vascular dementia (VaD) (2.4%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 2.4%, and 2.4%, respectively, p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.06; for AD: AHR 2.07, 95% CI 1.59-2.70; for VaD: AHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.83-1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3% to 65.2%; for AD: 50.7% to 75.1%; all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.

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