Uncertainty of extreme storm surge estimation by high wind sea surface drag coefficient and future typhoon change

Hiroyasu Kawai, Noriaki Hashimoto, Masaru Yamashiro, Tomohiro Yasuda

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncertainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.

Original languageEnglish
JournalProceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2010
Event32nd International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2010 - Shanghai, China
Duration: Jun 30 2010Jul 5 2010

Fingerprint

drag coefficient
Drag coefficient
storm surge
typhoon
sea surface
return period
Stochastic models
Water levels
Disasters
coastal protection
Monte Carlo methods
Uncertainty
disaster
water level
wind velocity
simulation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Oceanography

Cite this

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abstract = "Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncertainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.",
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T1 - Uncertainty of extreme storm surge estimation by high wind sea surface drag coefficient and future typhoon change

AU - Kawai, Hiroyasu

AU - Hashimoto, Noriaki

AU - Yamashiro, Masaru

AU - Yasuda, Tomohiro

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncertainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.

AB - Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncertainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.

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