Utilizing risk analysis and scenario planning for technology roadmapping

Yuya Kajikawa, Yasunori Kikuchi, Yasuhiro Fukushima, Michihisa Koyama

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    3 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Technology roadmap aims to direct future paths of advancing technologies and to foster understandings among stakeholders. The path illustrated in the roadmap is regarded as agreed commitment on the targeted technology and enables selected investment on it. However, current technology roadmaps are limited in its adequacy and reliability, because roadmapping tends to focus on proinnovation perspective rather than precaution one. Risks and uncertainties embedded in the presented pathways and major consequences in the future realized by following the roadmaps are often not well presented. In this chapter, we propose to utilize risk analysis and scenario planning for resolving risks and uncertainties in technology roadmap. The approach includes identification of technological, economic, environmental and social risks, and constraints. It also utilizes scenario planning to reduce uncertainties of the future. We discuss the feasibility of the approach in a case of roadmapping of energy technologies.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationStrategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry
    PublisherSpringer-Verlag London Ltd
    Pages231-244
    Number of pages14
    Volume9781447148876
    ISBN (Electronic)9781447148876
    ISBN (Print)144714886X, 9781447148869
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Nov 1 2013

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Engineering(all)

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