Technology roadmap aims to direct future paths of advancing technologies and to foster understandings among stakeholders. The path illustrated in the roadmap is regarded as agreed commitment on the targeted technology and enables selected investment on it. However, current technology roadmaps are limited in its adequacy and reliability, because roadmapping tends to focus on proinnovation perspective rather than precaution one. Risks and uncertainties embedded in the presented pathways and major consequences in the future realized by following the roadmaps are often not well presented. In this chapter, we propose to utilize risk analysis and scenario planning for resolving risks and uncertainties in technology roadmap. The approach includes identification of technological, economic, environmental and social risks, and constraints. It also utilizes scenario planning to reduce uncertainties of the future. We discuss the feasibility of the approach in a case of roadmapping of energy technologies.
|Title of host publication||Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry|
|Publisher||Springer-Verlag London Ltd|
|Number of pages||14|
|ISBN (Print)||144714886X, 9781447148869|
|Publication status||Published - Nov 1 2013|
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes