Zonation of failure probability for landslides induced by earthquake in Kitakyushu City using GIS

We calculate failure probability of earthquake-induced landslides throughout Kitakyushu City based on Monte Carlo simulation (minimizing the uncertainty of slope parameters) and Newmark stability analysis (estimating factors of safety). Meanwhile, hazard maps of earthquake-induced landslides in Kitakyushu city are produced according to the results of failure probability by using the geographical information system (GIS) with different peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and seismic occurrence periods at both conditions of m = 0 and m = 1. On the hazard maps, it is evident that the districts of Kokura Minami, Moji, Kokura Kita, Yahata Higashi and Yahata Nishi in Kitakyushu City would suffer the disaster of landslide severely. In the lower cases of PGA, the Southwest of Kokura Minami, the borders between Moji and Kokura Kita, and the borders between Yahata Higashi and Yahata Nishi are the major areas impacted by extremely serious hazard of earthquake-induced landslides. As PGA, seismic occurrence period or/and water factor increases, critical hazard of landslide has an extensive area, covering Wakamatsu. Nevertheless, Tobata, the only one of fortunate district throughout Kitakyushu City, is in safety all the time.