A forecast for extinction debt in the presence of speciation

Vasiliki Sgardeli, Yoh Iwasa, Harry Varvoglis, John M. Halley

研究成果: Contribution to journalArticle

3 引用 (Scopus)

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Predicting biodiversity relaxation following a disturbance is of great importance to conservation biology. Recently-developed models of stochastic community assembly allow us to predict the evolution of communities on the basis of mechanistic processes at the level of individuals. The neutral model of biodiversity, in particular, has provided closed-form solutions for the relaxation of biodiversity in isolated communities (no immigration or speciation). Here, we extend these results by deriving a relaxation curve for a neutral community in which new species are introduced through the mechanism of random fission speciation (RFS). The solution provides simple closed-form expressions for the equilibrium species richness, the relaxation time and the species-individual curve, which are good approximation to the more complicated formulas existing for the same model. The derivation of the relaxation curve is based on the assumption of a broken-stick species-abundance distribution (SAD) as an initial community configuration; yet for commonly observed SADs, the maximum deviation from the curve does not exceed 10%. Importantly, the solution confirms theoretical results and observations showing that the relaxation time increases with community size and thus habitat area. Such simple and analytically tractable models can help crystallize our ideas on the leading factors affecting biodiversity loss.

元の言語英語
ページ(範囲)48-52
ページ数5
ジャーナルJournal of Theoretical Biology
415
DOI
出版物ステータス出版済み - 2 21 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Medicine(all)
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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