A river flash flood forecasting model coupled with ensemble Kalman filter

N. Kimura, M. H. Hsu, M. Y. Tsai, M. C. Tsao, S. L. Yu, Akira Tai

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

抄録

A flash flood forecasting model including a state-of-the-art data assimilation method was developed to provide a precise water stage forecast for flood emergency response. The model integrates a flash flood routing model (FFRM) coupled with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and an artificial neural network (ANN) submodel. In the model, the ANN forecasts river water stages at gauge stations first. Then, these are used as the initial and boundary conditions of the FFRM. The water stages, simulated from the FFRM, are then corrected by the EnKF for lead time. The model was applied to the Tanshui River watershed in northern Taiwan during past typhoons. The model forecasts almost covered the data observed during a typhoon period to within 95% confidence intervals. Compared with the use of FFRM without EnKF, the forecast water stages from the EnKF improved the accuracy at the conjunctions between upstream and downstream channels and the steep slope location.

元の言語英語
ページ(範囲)178-192
ページ数15
ジャーナルJournal of Flood Risk Management
9
発行部数2
DOI
出版物ステータス出版済み - 6 1 2016

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flood forecasting
flash flood
Kalman filter
Kalman filters
natural disaster
Rivers
river
flood routing
water
neural network
artificial neural network
Water
Neural networks
typhoon
Watersheds
data assimilation
assimilation
confidence interval
Gages
river water

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Water Science and Technology

これを引用

A river flash flood forecasting model coupled with ensemble Kalman filter. / Kimura, N.; Hsu, M. H.; Tsai, M. Y.; Tsao, M. C.; Yu, S. L.; Tai, Akira.

:: Journal of Flood Risk Management, 巻 9, 番号 2, 01.06.2016, p. 178-192.

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

Kimura, N. ; Hsu, M. H. ; Tsai, M. Y. ; Tsao, M. C. ; Yu, S. L. ; Tai, Akira. / A river flash flood forecasting model coupled with ensemble Kalman filter. :: Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2016 ; 巻 9, 番号 2. pp. 178-192.
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