A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast

Fumitoshi Nomiyama, Joji Asai, Takuma Murakami, Hirotaka Takano, Junichi Murata

研究成果: 書籍/レポート タイプへの寄稿会議への寄与

8 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Two models are proposed for forecasting global solar radiation. The forecasted values are used to predict the output power of photovoltaic systems installed in power systems and control the output of other generators to meet the electricity demand. One of the models is used for at least one-day-ahead demand and supply planning. The other model is used for three-hour-ahead demand and supply operation. The models are based on weather information and use descriptive statistics and binary trees respectively. The focus is on estimation of the anticipated variations in the forecasts and dealing with the nonlinearity of the relationship between the global solar radiation and the input variables. In addition, the smoothing effect of the errors is investigated and utilized when they are applied to wide area forecasting. The results show that they are promising in keeping the balance between demand and supply in power systems with photovoltaic systems installed.

本文言語英語
ホスト出版物のタイトル2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 12月 1 2012
イベント2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012 - Auckland, ニュージ―ランド
継続期間: 10月 30 201211月 2 2012

出版物シリーズ

名前2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012

その他

その他2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
国/地域ニュージ―ランド
CityAuckland
Period10/30/1211/2/12

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • エネルギー工学および電力技術
  • 燃料技術

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