Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART

N. M. Pedatella, H. L. Liu, D. R. Marsh, K. Raeder, J. L. Anderson, J. L. Chau, Larisa Petrovna Goncharenko, T. A. Siddiqui

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

4 引用 (Scopus)

抄録

The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.

元の言語英語
ページ(範囲)3131-3153
ページ数23
ジャーナルJournal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
123
発行部数4
DOI
出版物ステータス出版済み - 4 1 2018

Fingerprint

stratospheric warming
Climate models
Upper atmosphere
climate models
assimilation
Testbeds
data assimilation
climate modeling
atmospheres
atmosphere
middle atmosphere
upper atmosphere
experiment
Experiments
mesosphere
thermosphere
stratosphere
forecasting
Ionosphere
ionospheres

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Forestry
  • Oceanography
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Palaeontology

これを引用

Pedatella, N. M., Liu, H. L., Marsh, D. R., Raeder, K., Anderson, J. L., Chau, J. L., ... Siddiqui, T. A. (2018). Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 123(4), 3131-3153. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA025107

Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART. / Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H. L.; Marsh, D. R.; Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, Larisa Petrovna; Siddiqui, T. A.

:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 巻 123, 番号 4, 01.04.2018, p. 3131-3153.

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

Pedatella, NM, Liu, HL, Marsh, DR, Raeder, K, Anderson, JL, Chau, JL, Goncharenko, LP & Siddiqui, TA 2018, 'Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART', Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 巻. 123, 番号 4, pp. 3131-3153. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA025107
Pedatella, N. M. ; Liu, H. L. ; Marsh, D. R. ; Raeder, K. ; Anderson, J. L. ; Chau, J. L. ; Goncharenko, Larisa Petrovna ; Siddiqui, T. A. / Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART. :: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics. 2018 ; 巻 123, 番号 4. pp. 3131-3153.
@article{7b9d3254f01141aba46c9dfb84cfe181,
title = "Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART",
abstract = "The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.",
author = "Pedatella, {N. M.} and Liu, {H. L.} and Marsh, {D. R.} and K. Raeder and Anderson, {J. L.} and Chau, {J. L.} and Goncharenko, {Larisa Petrovna} and Siddiqui, {T. A.}",
year = "2018",
month = "4",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/2017JA025107",
language = "English",
volume = "123",
pages = "3131--3153",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research",
issn = "0148-0227",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART

AU - Pedatella, N. M.

AU - Liu, H. L.

AU - Marsh, D. R.

AU - Raeder, K.

AU - Anderson, J. L.

AU - Chau, J. L.

AU - Goncharenko, Larisa Petrovna

AU - Siddiqui, T. A.

PY - 2018/4/1

Y1 - 2018/4/1

N2 - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.

AB - The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ∼10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ∼10–20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047542709&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85047542709&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/2017JA025107

DO - 10.1002/2017JA025107

M3 - Article

VL - 123

SP - 3131

EP - 3153

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research

SN - 0148-0227

IS - 4

ER -