TY - JOUR
T1 - Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
AU - Yamagami, Yoko
AU - Watanabe, Masahiro
AU - Mori, Masato
AU - Ono, Jun
N1 - Funding Information:
This work is supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan, through the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU, Grant Number JPMXD0717935457) (Y.Y., M.W., M.M., J.O.), the Program for the advanced studies of climate change projection (SENTAN, Grant Number JPMXD0722680395) (Y.Y., M.W., M.M., J.O.), the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) Project II (JPMXD1420318865) (M.M., J.O.), and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP19H05703 (M.M.), JP20H05729 (Y.Y.), JP22H01299 (M.M.), JP22H04487 (Y.Y.), and JP22K14098 (Y.Y.). The model simulations were performed using Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan.
Funding Information:
This work is supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan, through the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU, Grant Number JPMXD0717935457) (Y.Y., M.W., M.M., J.O.), the Program for the advanced studies of climate change projection (SENTAN, Grant Number JPMXD0722680395) (Y.Y., M.W., M.M., J.O.), the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) Project II (JPMXD1420318865) (M.M., J.O.), and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP19H05703 (M.M.), JP20H05729 (Y.Y.), JP22H01299 (M.M.), JP22H04487 (Y.Y.), and JP22K14098 (Y.Y.). The model simulations were performed using Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline.
AB - Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 35840582
AN - SCOPUS:85134223289
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 3767
ER -
