Development of a four-dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations

Nozomi Sugiura, Toshiyuki Awaji, Shuhei Masuda, Takashi Mochizuki, Takahiro Toyoda, Toru Miyama, Hiromichi Igarashi, Yoichi Ishikawa

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿学術誌査読

89 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere global model has been successfully developed with the aim of better defining the dynamical states of the global climate on seasonal to interannual scales. The application of this system to state estimations of climate processes during the 1996-1998 period shows, in particular, that the representations of structures associated with several key events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sector (such as the El Niño, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Asian summer monsoon) are significantly improved. This fact suggests that our 4D-VAR coupled data assimilation (CDA) approach has the potential to correct the initial location of the model climate attractor on the basis of observational data. In addition, the coupling parameters that control the air-sea exchange fluxes of mass, momentum, and heat become well adjusted. Such an initialization using the 4D-VAR CDA approach allows us to make a roughly 1.5-year lead time prediction of the 1997-1998 El Niño event. These results demonstrate that our 4D-VAR CDA system has the ability to enhance forecast potential for seasonal to interannual phenomena.

本文言語英語
論文番号C10017
ジャーナルJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
113
10
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 10月 8 2008
外部発表はい

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 地球化学および岩石学
  • 地球物理学
  • 地球惑星科学(その他)
  • 宇宙惑星科学
  • 海洋学

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