TY - JOUR
T1 - Double-edged trains:: Economic outcomes and regional disparity of high-speed railways
AU - Yoo, Sunbin
AU - Kumagai, Junya
AU - Kawasaki, Kohei
AU - Hong, Sungwan
AU - Zhang, Bingqi
AU - Shimamura, Takuya
AU - Managi, Shunsuke
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was conducted as a part of the “Institutional design for desirable acceptance of AI technology” project undertaken at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). The authors are grateful for the helpful comments and suggestions from the Discussion Paper seminar participants at RIETI. We also express our gratitude for the seminar participants from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for their comments on this study. Our special thanks go to Naoki Wakamori from Hitotsubashi University, Andrew Griffen from The University of Tokyo, Longfei Zheng from Tsinghua University, Kyungwoong Koh from Johns Hopkins University, Wataru Nozawa and Yoshitaka Tanaka from Fukuoka University, Tetsuya Tamaki from Kagawa University, Yeonkyung Park from Cornell University, and the seminar participants at the University of Tokyo (Japan) and Kyushu University (Japan) for their helpful comments. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP20H00648 . Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies.
Funding Information:
This study was conducted as a part of the “Institutional design for desirable acceptance of AI technology” project undertaken at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). The authors are grateful for the helpful comments and suggestions from the Discussion Paper seminar participants at RIETI. We also express our gratitude for the seminar participants from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for their comments on this study. Our special thanks go to Naoki Wakamori from Hitotsubashi University, Andrew Griffen from The University of Tokyo, Longfei Zheng from Tsinghua University, Kyungwoong Koh from Johns Hopkins University, Wataru Nozawa and Yoshitaka Tanaka from Fukuoka University, Tetsuya Tamaki from Kagawa University, Yeonkyung Park from Cornell University, and the seminar participants at the University of Tokyo (Japan) and Kyushu University (Japan) for their helpful comments. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP20H00648. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/3
Y1 - 2023/3
N2 - We illuminate the causal relationship between high-speed railway (HSR) expansions and economic development, focusing on HSR in Japan–the Shinkansen–from 1983 to 2020. To address endogeneity concerns about HSR station construction, we employ a market access approach that captures both the direct and indirect impacts of HSR expansion. The results show that a 1% increase in HSR market access increases the land price by 0.176%, total income (hereafter, income) by 0.425%, and income per capita by 0.023% of Japan. However, most of the benefits are focused in Tokyo and other developed areas, while the economic growth due to HSR expansion of cities outside these areas is negative or statistically insignificant. We confirm the robustness of the results through the instrumental variable (IV) approach and a series of robustness checks. Next, we conduct counterfactual analyses using regression results to evaluate future Japanese HSR plans: the Linear Shinkansen, regional expansion, and a policy that would implement both. Simulation results reconfirm that future HSR plans will induce economic growth but, at the same time, aggravate regional disparity; thus, the expected economic outcomes may be double-edged.
AB - We illuminate the causal relationship between high-speed railway (HSR) expansions and economic development, focusing on HSR in Japan–the Shinkansen–from 1983 to 2020. To address endogeneity concerns about HSR station construction, we employ a market access approach that captures both the direct and indirect impacts of HSR expansion. The results show that a 1% increase in HSR market access increases the land price by 0.176%, total income (hereafter, income) by 0.425%, and income per capita by 0.023% of Japan. However, most of the benefits are focused in Tokyo and other developed areas, while the economic growth due to HSR expansion of cities outside these areas is negative or statistically insignificant. We confirm the robustness of the results through the instrumental variable (IV) approach and a series of robustness checks. Next, we conduct counterfactual analyses using regression results to evaluate future Japanese HSR plans: the Linear Shinkansen, regional expansion, and a policy that would implement both. Simulation results reconfirm that future HSR plans will induce economic growth but, at the same time, aggravate regional disparity; thus, the expected economic outcomes may be double-edged.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147222094&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85147222094&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.016
DO - 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.016
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85147222094
SN - 0967-070X
VL - 133
SP - 120
EP - 133
JO - Transport Policy
JF - Transport Policy
ER -
