Dynamic bus travel time prediction using an ANN-based model

Mansur As, Tsunenori Mine

研究成果: 書籍/レポート タイプへの寄稿会議への寄与

3 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Prediction of bus travel time is one of crucial issues for passengers in letting them know their departure time from an origin and arrival time at a destination and allowing them to make decisions (e.g., postpone departure time at certain hours) and to reduce their waiting time at bus stops. This paper proposes a time series approach to predict travel time over an interval between two adjacent bus stops. We build an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to predict travel time over the interval. To make accurate prediction, we divide a day into 8 time-periods in calculating travel time over the interval at each time-period and also use the travel time condition at right before the target time-period in order to apply the dynamical change of travel time as well as the historical average travel time at the same time-period during the past several days. To validate the proposed method, we used bus probe data collected from November 21st to December 20th in 2013, provided by Nishitetsu Bus Company, Fukuoka, Japan. Experimental results show that our models can effectively improve prediction accuracy of travel time on the route compared to a method only using the historical average travel time.

本文言語英語
ホスト出版物のタイトルProceedings of the 12th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication, IMCOM 2018
出版社Association for Computing Machinery
ISBN(電子版)9781450363853
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 1月 5 2018
イベント12th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication, IMCOM 2018 - Langkawi, マレーシア
継続期間: 1月 5 20181月 7 2018

出版物シリーズ

名前ACM International Conference Proceeding Series

その他

その他12th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication, IMCOM 2018
国/地域マレーシア
CityLangkawi
Period1/5/181/7/18

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • ソフトウェア
  • 人間とコンピュータの相互作用
  • コンピュータ ビジョンおよびパターン認識
  • コンピュータ ネットワークおよび通信

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